Crypto-enabled prediction platform Augur is all set to launch its second version. But Facebook, being the ever-evolving company has launched its prediction platform dubbed as “Forecasts”.
It is a prediction market and currently competes a crypto platform Augur. The social media giant is stepping up into the crypto market and it seems similar to that of Augur. The platform conducts a poll on a particular topic and it gives rewards to the participating audience with a social badge. Lastly, the poll results are published on the platform.
It is available in the form of iOS app and users can easily poll through their phones. It is somehow different than the crypto prediction market Augur. The poll results are then made available publicly on the Facebook website.
COVID-19 Prediction Market By Facebook
Facebook’s Forecast platform is in its beta stage. The app is available only to the users in the United States and Canada. It is an invite-only app available for iPhone users. Before officially launching its beta testing prediction market app Facebook tested it among its employees.
The beta launch of the app is available to only the healthcare and research users in both of these countries. The beta testing of the prediction market is related to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Competes With Crypto Prediction Market
Augur, the cryptocurrency prediction market is emerging as a successful platform. It uses two cryptocurrencies, ZRX and DAI. It has a mobile user interface, off-chain scaling, and fiat on-ramps among its many other features. These features are set to launch for decentralized betting markets ahead of the U.S. elections to be held in November.
Facebook, on the other hand, can launch its stablecoin Libra through the Forecast platform. If this happens there is a chance that it can provide a better prediction market to the users in the future. Libra will also be integrated with WhatsApp as a payment method.
Facebook is a user-centric platform and there are billions of users of the social media solution throughout the world. If Forecast becomes popular and comes with advanced features, it can give a tough competition to crypto prediction platforms.
On the other hand, Waves a crypto exchange platform has also begun to host multiple prediction markets in the wake of Covid-19 outspread. The results are not public yet.
Has Facebook Forecast Proven Its Claim?
Although it is crucial to have a prediction handy at such a situation where millions of people are fighting with a pandemic. But somehow Facebook predictions are just “predictions”, not actual data.
It is a serious matter where billions of lives are at a risk. A slight piece of misinformation can be life-threatening. Many other tech companies are also under a fake new spreader radar. The platform is based on guessing and any guess can be dangerous.
People tend to believe social media more than a news agency today. Thus, guess-only data is not feasible. What’s happening on the Forecast app is, they invite certain healthcare, academic, and research experts and conduct a COVID-19 poll.
The participants answer only according to what they think, not what’s the truth. After the poll, the result goes live on Facebook without any validation. Some of the polls can seem valid for example, Is there a chance that the US election will be postponed?
In this case, users can predict and answer according to their guess. But where is the validation to these forecasts? Facebook receives a forecast request, edits if it needs clarity and publishes a poll to its users. The results are then displayed according to the supporting data.
Although the guess is an educated guess by healthcare experts COVID is no joke. Users can believe these polls to be true while in actual these are just based on individual guesses.
The app presents the poll in a presentable forecast but strict background research should be done if the poll is related to the pandemic hypothesis. A peer-reviewed forecast will be an accurate prediction.